About us
Afi is the leading consulting firm specialized in economics, banking and public finance in Spain. Originally set up in 1987 by a group of renowned academics that provided Spanish financial services institutions and non-financial corporations with insightful economic and financial analysis tailored to their needs.
A brochure with Afi credentials and a brief description of the main services targeted for foreign investors can be downloaded here.
Latest research & commentary
- Spain Weekly
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Employment creation in Q2 surprise upwards and supports an economic growth increasingly reliant on internal demand
08.01.18 - Notes on Spain
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Government greenlights autonomous communities´ gradual return to markets
07.11.18 - Banking
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Earnings season´s end: 2017, a good year for Spanish listed banks
02.12.18 - Political Risk
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Rising chances of early elections but low probability of an adverse economic & political scenario
05.29.18
Flash Notes
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08.08.18
Industrial production slows down in June amid global trade concerns, another signal of Spanish cycle relative weakness in the second half of the year
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08.03.18
Lowest PMI reading in 56 months adds up concerns of economic growth deceleration in the summe
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08.02.18
The labour market cools down in July and signs of economic deceleration on Q318 start building up
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08.01.18
As illegal immigration flows increase with the good summer weather, new PP leader Casado picks on an issue from which Spanish politics had been relatively immune so far
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07.31.18
Q218 slows down more than expected (0.6% QoQ) due to the deceleration of private consumption and trade woes
Spain in the news
- 08.14.18
Rescue boat Open Arms arrives in Spanish port with 87 migrants aboard
Reuters - 08.14.18
Sanchez, Merkel to seek common strategies on EU migration, defense, euro
EFE - 08.14.18
Open Arms boat carrying 87 migrants arrives to Spain
EFE - 08.14.18
Grove concern: Trump tariffs take toll on Spanish olive growers
The Guardian - 08.09.18
Germany reaches first deal with Spain to return migrants
Reuters
Afi forecasts
| %YoY | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (*) Contribution to GDP growth | |||||
| Source: Afi, INE | |||||
| Real GDP | 3,1 | 2,9 | 2,4 | ||
| Final consumption | 2,2 | 2,3 | 2,0 | ||
| Household | 2,4 | 2,5 | 2,0 | ||
| Public Sector | 1,6 | 1,5 | 2,0 | ||
| Investment | 5,0 | 4,6 | 3,7 | ||
| Capital goods | 6,1 | 4,1 | 3,4 | ||
| Construction | 4,6 | 5,2 | 4,2 | ||
| Housing | 8,3 | 8,9 | 6,9 | ||
| Other construction | 1,5 | 1,4 | 1,6 | ||
| Domestic demand (*) | 2,8 | 2,7 | 2,3 | ||
| Exports | 5,0 | 4,5 | 3,5 | ||
| Imports | 4,7 | 4,4 | 3,6 | ||
| External demand (*) | 0,3 | 0,2 | 0,1 | ||
| CPI (annual average) | 2,0 | 1,7 | 1,4 | ||
| GDP deflator | 1,0 | 1,2 | 1,3 | ||
| Nominal GDP | 4,0 | 4,1 | 3,7 | ||
| Employment | 2,6 | 2,4 | 2,0 | ||
| Unemployment rate | 17,2 | 15,5 | 14,1 | ||
| EDP Public balance (% GDP) | -3,1 | -2,6 | -2,0 | ||
| EDP Public debt (% GDP) | 98,4 | 97,6 | 96,4 | ||
| Current account (% GDP) | 1,8 | 1,6 | 1,4 | ||
| Apr-14 | May-14 | Jun-14 | Jul-14 | Aug-14 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY change, quarterly average (%) | ||||||||||
|
(1) Indices (*) Seasonally adjusted figures |
||||||||||
| Productive capacity utilization, % | 77.0 | 74.1 | ||||||||
| Industrial production | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | |||||
| Economic sentiment index (1) | 102.5 | 101.4 | 101.8 | 104.0 | 103.4 | |||||
| Industrial confidence (1) | -9.6 | -9.3 | -8.0 | -7.4 | -5.7 | |||||
| Services confidence (1) | 11.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 12.5 | 7.0 | |||||
| Electricity consumption | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||
| Wholesales | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.8 | |||||
| Deflated retail sales | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.2 | |||||
| Vehicle registration | 10.2 | 12.1 | 14.3 | 15.7 | 14.9 | |||||
| Consumer confidence index (1) | -8.3 | -7.8 | -6.7 | -3.9 | -7.7 | |||||
| Social Security registration | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | |||||
| Deflated exports of goods | 3.2 | 0.7 | -1.9 | -1.0 | 3.2 | |||||
| Foreign tourist arrival | 7.1 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 5.0 | |||||
| Credit to private sector | -7.6 | -7.2 | -6.9 | -6.3 | -5.9 | |||||