About us
Afi is the leading consulting firm specialized in economics, banking and public finance in Spain. Originally set up in 1987 by a group of renowned academics that provided Spanish financial services institutions and non-financial corporations with insightful economic and financial analysis tailored to their needs.
A brochure with Afi credentials and a brief description of the main services targeted for foreign investors can be downloaded here.
Latest research & commentary
- Spain Weekly
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Agreement for a budget blueprint looks restrictive on paper but will end being neutral
10.15.18 - Notes on Spain
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The hike in Central State´s spending makes us raise our public deficit forecast for 2018 to 2.7% of GDP
09.21.18 - Banking
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Commissions and fees keep on increasing their share of net revenues for Spanish banks
09.24.18 - Political Risk
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Rising chances of early elections but low probability of an adverse economic & political scenario
05.29.18
Flash Notes
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10.16.18
Budget blueprint sticks to the rules, but estimates of some revenue measures too high
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10.09.18
IMF: sanguine for the short term, more nuanced for structural problems
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10.05.18
AIREF forecasts higher population growth until 2050
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10.04.18
IMF warnings: pro-cyclical policy and U-turn in reforms
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10.03.18
Leading indicators point to further softening of growth
Spain in the news
- 08.31.18
Spain¿s Taxi Drivers Continue Protest Against Uber and Rivals
Bloomberg - 08.21.18
Tourism replaces construction as Spain main employment driver
El País - 08.21.18
Ciudadanos calls for fresh suspension of Catalan powers after comments by premier
El País - 08.21.18
Desperate journeys: Arrivals in Spain tripled this year
Aljazeera - 08.20.18
BBVA Turkey unit calls for tighter monetary policy to save lira
Bloomberg
Afi forecasts
| %YoY | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (*) Contribution to GDP growth | |||||
| Source: Afi, INE | |||||
| Real GDP | 3,0 | 2,6 | 2,3 | ||
| Final consumption | 2,4 | 2,1 | 2,0 | ||
| Household | 2,5 | 2,1 | 2,0 | ||
| Public Sector | 1,9 | 2,0 | 2,0 | ||
| Investment | 4,8 | 4,4 | 3,7 | ||
| Capital goods | 6,0 | 3,8 | 3,3 | ||
| Construction | 4,6 | 5,2 | 4,2 | ||
| Housing | 9,0 | 8,9 | 6,9 | ||
| Other construction | 0,6 | 1,3 | 1,5 | ||
| Domestic demand (*) | 2,9 | 2,5 | 2,3 | ||
| Exports | 5,2 | 2,6 | 3,5 | ||
| Imports | 5,6 | 2,6 | 3,6 | ||
| External demand (*) | 0,1 | 0,1 | 0,0 | ||
| CPI (annual average) | 2,0 | 1,7 | 1,4 | ||
| GDP deflator | 1,3 | 1,2 | 1,3 | ||
| Nominal GDP | 4,3 | 3,9 | 3,6 | ||
| Employment | 2,6 | 2,5 | 2,0 | ||
| Unemployment rate | 17,2 | 15,4 | 13,9 | ||
| EDP Public balance (% GDP) | -3,1 | -2,7 | -2,2 | ||
| EDP Public debt (% GDP) | 98,4 | 97,7 | 96,4 | ||
| Current account (% GDP) | 1,8 | 1,5 | 1,4 | ||
| Apr-14 | May-14 | Jun-14 | Jul-14 | Aug-14 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY change, quarterly average (%) | ||||||||||
|
(1) Indices (*) Seasonally adjusted figures |
||||||||||
| Productive capacity utilization, % | 77.0 | 74.1 | ||||||||
| Industrial production | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | |||||
| Economic sentiment index (1) | 102.5 | 101.4 | 101.8 | 104.0 | 103.4 | |||||
| Industrial confidence (1) | -9.6 | -9.3 | -8.0 | -7.4 | -5.7 | |||||
| Services confidence (1) | 11.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 12.5 | 7.0 | |||||
| Electricity consumption | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||
| Wholesales | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.8 | |||||
| Deflated retail sales | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.2 | |||||
| Vehicle registration | 10.2 | 12.1 | 14.3 | 15.7 | 14.9 | |||||
| Consumer confidence index (1) | -8.3 | -7.8 | -6.7 | -3.9 | -7.7 | |||||
| Social Security registration | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | |||||
| Deflated exports of goods | 3.2 | 0.7 | -1.9 | -1.0 | 3.2 | |||||
| Foreign tourist arrival | 7.1 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 5.0 | |||||
| Credit to private sector | -7.6 | -7.2 | -6.9 | -6.3 | -5.9 | |||||