About us
Afi is the leading consulting firm specialized in economics, banking and public finance in Spain. Originally set up in 1987 by a group of renowned academics that provided Spanish financial services institutions and non-financial corporations with insightful economic and financial analysis tailored to their needs.
A brochure with Afi credentials and a brief description of the main services targeted for foreign investors can be downloaded here.
Latest research & commentary
- Spain Weekly
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Recent foreign trade performance
09.21.18 - Notes on Spain
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The hike in Central State´s spending makes us raise our public deficit forecast for 2018 to 2.7% of GDP
09.21.18 - Banking
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Commissions and fees keep on increasing their share of net revenues for Spanish banks
09.24.18 - Political Risk
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Rising chances of early elections but low probability of an adverse economic & political scenario
05.29.18
Flash Notes
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09.13.18
Academic scandals dominate Spanish political life this week despite the tight budget calendar ahead
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08.08.18
Industrial production slows down in June amid global trade concerns, another signal of Spanish cycle relative weakness in the second half of the year
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08.03.18
Lowest PMI reading in 56 months adds up concerns of economic growth deceleration in the summe
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08.02.18
The labour market cools down in July and signs of economic deceleration on Q318 start building up
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08.01.18
As illegal immigration flows increase with the good summer weather, new PP leader Casado picks on an issue from which Spanish politics had been relatively immune so far
Spain in the news
- 08.31.18
Spain¿s Taxi Drivers Continue Protest Against Uber and Rivals
Bloomberg - 08.21.18
Tourism replaces construction as Spain main employment driver
El País - 08.21.18
Ciudadanos calls for fresh suspension of Catalan powers after comments by premier
El País - 08.21.18
Desperate journeys: Arrivals in Spain tripled this year
Aljazeera - 08.20.18
BBVA Turkey unit calls for tighter monetary policy to save lira
Bloomberg
Afi forecasts
| %YoY | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (*) Contribution to GDP growth | |||||
| Source: Afi, INE | |||||
| Real GDP | 3,1 | 2,9 | 2,4 | ||
| Final consumption | 2,2 | 2,3 | 2,0 | ||
| Household | 2,4 | 2,5 | 2,0 | ||
| Public Sector | 1,6 | 1,5 | 2,0 | ||
| Investment | 5,0 | 4,6 | 3,7 | ||
| Capital goods | 6,1 | 4,1 | 3,4 | ||
| Construction | 4,6 | 5,2 | 4,2 | ||
| Housing | 8,3 | 8,9 | 6,9 | ||
| Other construction | 1,5 | 1,4 | 1,6 | ||
| Domestic demand (*) | 2,8 | 2,7 | 2,3 | ||
| Exports | 5,0 | 4,5 | 3,5 | ||
| Imports | 4,7 | 4,4 | 3,6 | ||
| External demand (*) | 0,3 | 0,2 | 0,1 | ||
| CPI (annual average) | 2,0 | 1,7 | 1,4 | ||
| GDP deflator | 1,0 | 1,2 | 1,3 | ||
| Nominal GDP | 4,0 | 4,1 | 3,7 | ||
| Employment | 2,6 | 2,4 | 2,0 | ||
| Unemployment rate | 17,2 | 15,5 | 14,1 | ||
| EDP Public balance (% GDP) | -3,1 | -2,6 | -2,0 | ||
| EDP Public debt (% GDP) | 98,4 | 97,6 | 96,4 | ||
| Current account (% GDP) | 1,8 | 1,6 | 1,4 | ||
| Apr-14 | May-14 | Jun-14 | Jul-14 | Aug-14 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY change, quarterly average (%) | ||||||||||
|
(1) Indices (*) Seasonally adjusted figures |
||||||||||
| Productive capacity utilization, % | 77.0 | 74.1 | ||||||||
| Industrial production | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | |||||
| Economic sentiment index (1) | 102.5 | 101.4 | 101.8 | 104.0 | 103.4 | |||||
| Industrial confidence (1) | -9.6 | -9.3 | -8.0 | -7.4 | -5.7 | |||||
| Services confidence (1) | 11.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 12.5 | 7.0 | |||||
| Electricity consumption | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||
| Wholesales | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.8 | |||||
| Deflated retail sales | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.2 | |||||
| Vehicle registration | 10.2 | 12.1 | 14.3 | 15.7 | 14.9 | |||||
| Consumer confidence index (1) | -8.3 | -7.8 | -6.7 | -3.9 | -7.7 | |||||
| Social Security registration | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | |||||
| Deflated exports of goods | 3.2 | 0.7 | -1.9 | -1.0 | 3.2 | |||||
| Foreign tourist arrival | 7.1 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 5.0 | |||||
| Credit to private sector | -7.6 | -7.2 | -6.9 | -6.3 | -5.9 | |||||