About us
Afi is the leading consulting firm specialized in economics, banking and public finance in Spain. Originally set up in 1987 by a group of renowned academics that provided Spanish financial services institutions and non-financial corporations with insightful economic and financial analysis tailored to their needs.
A brochure with Afi credentials and a brief description of the main services targeted for foreign investors can be downloaded here.
Latest research & commentary
- Spain Weekly
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We leave our 2020 deficit forecast of -2.1% unchanged but increase the forecast for 2021 to -1.8%
01.24.20 - Notes on Spain
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We raise our 2019 deficit forecast by two tenths of GDP to 2.3%
12.26.19 - Banking
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Implications of the IRPH affair on the Spanish banking system - a set of scenarios
09.10.19 - Political Risk
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As in April´s polls, vote dispersion among right-wing parties keeps harming their chances to Govern
11.08.19
Flash Notes
- No other information.
Spain in the news
- 08.01.19
Spanish stock market leads European plunge amid fears of no-deal Brexit
El País - 08.01.19
More Sustainable Growth In Spanish Housing Market: Prices Will Rise C.5% In 2019-20
The Corner - 07.31.19
Spain´s Socialists rise above 40%, voter poll shows
Reuters - 07.31.19
Spain´s Economy Loses Some Shine as Growth Misses Forecast
Bloomberg - 07.31.19
Spanish stock market leads European plunge amid fears of no-deal Brexit
El País
Afi forecasts
| %YoY | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (*) Contribution to GDP growth | |||||
| Source: Afi, INE | |||||
| Real GDP | 2,4 | 1,9 | 1,7 | ||
| Final consumption | 1,9 | 1,0 | 1,6 | ||
| Household | 1,8 | 0,7 | 1,5 | ||
| Public Sector | 1,9 | 2,1 | 1,9 | ||
| Investment | 5,3 | 2,3 | 2,5 | ||
| Capital goods | 5,7 | 1,9 | 2,1 | ||
| Construction | 6,6 | 3,1 | 3,4 | ||
| Housing | 7,8 | 3,7 | 3,4 | ||
| Other construction | 5,3 | 2,2 | 3,3 | ||
| Domestic demand (*) | 2,6 | 1,5 | 1,8 | ||
| Exports | 2,2 | 2,2 | 3,2 | ||
| Imports | 3,3 | 0,3 | 3,5 | ||
| External demand (*) | -0,3 | 0,4 | 0,0 | ||
| CPI (annual average) | 1,7 | 0,7 | 0,8 | ||
| GDP deflator | 0,9 | 1,5 | 1,7 | ||
| Nominal GDP | 3,3 | 3,4 | 3,4 | ||
| Employment | 2,5 | 2,2 | 1,6 | ||
| Unemployment rate | 15,3 | 14,2 | 13,3 | ||
| EDP Public balance (% GDP) | -2,5 | -2,0 | -1,8 | ||
| EDP Public debt (% GDP) | 97,2 | 96,5 | 94,5 | ||
| Current account (% GDP) | 0,8 | 1,6 | 1,2 | ||
| Apr-14 | May-14 | Jun-14 | Jul-14 | Aug-14 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY change, quarterly average (%) | ||||||||||
|
(1) Indices (*) Seasonally adjusted figures |
||||||||||
| Productive capacity utilization, % | 77.0 | 74.1 | ||||||||
| Industrial production | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | |||||
| Economic sentiment index (1) | 102.5 | 101.4 | 101.8 | 104.0 | 103.4 | |||||
| Industrial confidence (1) | -9.6 | -9.3 | -8.0 | -7.4 | -5.7 | |||||
| Services confidence (1) | 11.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 12.5 | 7.0 | |||||
| Electricity consumption | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||
| Wholesales | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.8 | |||||
| Deflated retail sales | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.2 | |||||
| Vehicle registration | 10.2 | 12.1 | 14.3 | 15.7 | 14.9 | |||||
| Consumer confidence index (1) | -8.3 | -7.8 | -6.7 | -3.9 | -7.7 | |||||
| Social Security registration | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | |||||
| Deflated exports of goods | 3.2 | 0.7 | -1.9 | -1.0 | 3.2 | |||||
| Foreign tourist arrival | 7.1 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 5.0 | |||||
| Credit to private sector | -7.6 | -7.2 | -6.9 | -6.3 | -5.9 | |||||