About us
Afi is the leading consulting firm specialized in economics, banking and public finance in Spain. Originally set up in 1987 by a group of renowned academics that provided Spanish financial services institutions and non-financial corporations with insightful economic and financial analysis tailored to their needs.
A brochure with Afi credentials and a brief description of the main services targeted for foreign investors can be downloaded here.
Latest research & commentary
- Spain Weekly
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Household savings remain high in 2023 with consumer spending reaching its long-term trend line
12.08.23 - Notes on Spain Public finance
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Regional debt forgiveness scenarios
11.03.23
Economy
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Spain´s economic deceleration was confirmed in Q3, although it was less intense than expected
10.27.23 - No other information.
- Banking
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Earnings scenarios
07.23.21 - Political Risk
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The interim central government delays the approval of the PGE for 2024 and the implementation of milestones and targets of the NGEU funds
07.25.23
Flash Notes
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10.27.23
Spain´s economic deceleration was confirmed in Q3, although it was less intense than expected
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09.25.23
The Spanish economy fared better than expected in 1H23 but downside risks remain prevalent
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07.28.23
The Spanish economy holds up in Q2 and rises 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. We maintain our forecast for 2023 at 2.2%
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01.27.23
Spanish economy grows 5.5% in 2022, but domestic demand plummets in the last quarter of the year
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01.28.22
Spanish economy grows 5% in 2021, but consumption slackens in the last quarter of the year
Afi forecasts
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | |||||
0 | |||||
Real GDP | 5,8 | 2,4 | 1,6 | ||
Final consumption | 3,4 | 2,4 | 2,2 | ||
Household | 4,5 | 2,3 | 2,2 | ||
Public Sector | -0,2 | 2,7 | 2,2 | ||
Investment | 2,4 | 1,9 | 2,9 | ||
Capital goods | 1,9 | 0,7 | 5,2 | ||
Construction | 2,6 | 2,9 | 1,0 | ||
Housing | 1,4 | 0,9 | 0,9 | ||
Other construction | 4,1 | 5,4 | 5,4 | ||
Domestic demand (*) | 2,9 | 2,3 | 2,4 | ||
Exports | 15,2 | 0,7 | -2,1 | ||
Imports | 7,0 | 0,4 | -0,3 | ||
External demand (*) | 2,9 | 0,1 | -0,8 | ||
CPI (annual average) | 8,4 | 3,8 | 3,2 | ||
GDP deflator | 4,4 | 5,9 | 3,5 | ||
Nominal GDP | 10,2 | 8,3 | 5,1 | ||
Employment | 3,1 | 2,7 | 1,2 | ||
Unemployment rate | 12,9 | 12,1 | 11,8 | ||
EDP Public balance (% GDP) | -4,7 | -3,9 | -3,7 | ||
EDP Public debt (% GDP) | 113,0 | 111,6 | 111,2 | ||
Current account (% GDP) | 0,6 | 2,2 | 0,7 |
Apr-14 | May-14 | Jun-14 | Jul-14 | Aug-14 | ||||||
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YoY change, quarterly average (%) | ||||||||||
(1) Indices (*) Seasonally adjusted figures |
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Productive capacity utilization, % | 77.0 | 74.1 | ||||||||
Industrial production | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | |||||
Economic sentiment index (1) | 102.5 | 101.4 | 101.8 | 104.0 | 103.4 | |||||
Industrial confidence (1) | -9.6 | -9.3 | -8.0 | -7.4 | -5.7 | |||||
Services confidence (1) | 11.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 12.5 | 7.0 | |||||
Electricity consumption | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||
Wholesales | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.8 | |||||
Deflated retail sales | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.2 | |||||
Vehicle registration | 10.2 | 12.1 | 14.3 | 15.7 | 14.9 | |||||
Consumer confidence index (1) | -8.3 | -7.8 | -6.7 | -3.9 | -7.7 | |||||
Social Security registration | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | |||||
Deflated exports of goods | 3.2 | 0.7 | -1.9 | -1.0 | 3.2 | |||||
Foreign tourist arrival | 7.1 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 5.0 | |||||
Credit to private sector | -7.6 | -7.2 | -6.9 | -6.3 | -5.9 |