About us
Afi is the leading consulting firm specialized in economics, banking and public finance in Spain. Originally set up in 1987 by a group of renowned academics that provided Spanish financial services institutions and non-financial corporations with insightful economic and financial analysis tailored to their needs.
A brochure with Afi credentials and a brief description of the main services targeted for foreign investors can be downloaded here.
Latest research & commentary
- Spain Weekly
-
Spain´s export sector is not significantly exposed to the risk of new US tariffs
11.15.24 - Notes on Spain Public finance
-
The upward revision of out GDP forecast for 2024 also has a positive effect on our deficit forecasts, which now stand at 2.9% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025
08.01.24
Economy
-
The revision of the INE´s Annual National Accounts increases the growth of the Spanish economy between 2021 and 2023 and reduces the fall observed in 2020
09.18.24 - No other information.
- Banking
-
Earnings scenarios
07.23.21 - Political Risk
-
The interim central government delays the approval of the PGE for 2024 and the implementation of milestones and targets of the NGEU funds
07.25.23
Flash Notes
-
07.31.24
We estimate the Spanish economy will grow by 2.8% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025
-
10.27.23
Spain´s economic deceleration was confirmed in Q3, although it was less intense than expected
-
09.25.23
The Spanish economy fared better than expected in 1H23 but downside risks remain prevalent
-
07.28.23
The Spanish economy holds up in Q2 and rises 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. We maintain our forecast for 2023 at 2.2%
-
01.27.23
Spanish economy grows 5.5% in 2022, but domestic demand plummets in the last quarter of the year
Afi forecasts
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | |||||
| 0 | |||||
| Real GDP | 2,7 | 3,1 | 2,6 | ||
| Final consumption | 2,7 | 3,2 | 2,5 | ||
| Household | 1,7 | 2,7 | 2,4 | ||
| Public Sector | 5,2 | 4,6 | 2,7 | ||
| Investment | 2,1 | 1,7 | 3,5 | ||
| Capital goods | 1,1 | 1,1 | 3,5 | ||
| Construction | 3,0 | 2,5 | 3,2 | ||
| Housing | 2,1 | 2,1 | 3,8 | ||
| Other construction | 4,2 | 4,2 | 2,5 | ||
| Domestic demand (*) | 1,7 | 2,8 | 2,7 | ||
| Exports | 2,8 | 3,4 | 3,8 | ||
| Imports | 0,3 | 2,8 | 4,2 | ||
| External demand (*) | 1,0 | 0,3 | -0,1 | ||
| CPI (annual average) | 3,5 | 2,8 | 2,0 | ||
| GDP deflator | 6,4 | 3,1 | 2,6 | ||
| Nominal GDP | 9,1 | 6,2 | 5,2 | ||
| Employment | 3,1 | 2,0 | 1,6 | ||
| Unemployment rate | 12,2 | 11,6 | 11,1 | ||
| EDP Public balance (% GDP) | -3,7 | -2,9 | -2,5 | ||
| EDP Public debt (% GDP) | 105,1 | 102,6 | 100,7 | ||
| Current account (% GDP) | 2,5 | 3,3 | 2,3 | ||
| Apr-14 | May-14 | Jun-14 | Jul-14 | Aug-14 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY change, quarterly average (%) | ||||||||||
|
(1) Indices (*) Seasonally adjusted figures |
||||||||||
| Productive capacity utilization, % | 77.0 | 74.1 | ||||||||
| Industrial production | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | |||||
| Economic sentiment index (1) | 102.5 | 101.4 | 101.8 | 104.0 | 103.4 | |||||
| Industrial confidence (1) | -9.6 | -9.3 | -8.0 | -7.4 | -5.7 | |||||
| Services confidence (1) | 11.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 12.5 | 7.0 | |||||
| Electricity consumption | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||
| Wholesales | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.8 | |||||
| Deflated retail sales | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.2 | |||||
| Vehicle registration | 10.2 | 12.1 | 14.3 | 15.7 | 14.9 | |||||
| Consumer confidence index (1) | -8.3 | -7.8 | -6.7 | -3.9 | -7.7 | |||||
| Social Security registration | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | |||||
| Deflated exports of goods | 3.2 | 0.7 | -1.9 | -1.0 | 3.2 | |||||
| Foreign tourist arrival | 7.1 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 5.0 | |||||
| Credit to private sector | -7.6 | -7.2 | -6.9 | -6.3 | -5.9 | |||||
2024 © Afi. All rights reserved. Legal disclaimer. Privacy policy. Cookies Policy. All images used are owned by Getty Images.