About us
Afi is the leading consulting firm specialized in economics, banking and public finance in Spain. Originally set up in 1987 by a group of renowned academics that provided Spanish financial services institutions and non-financial corporations with insightful economic and financial analysis tailored to their needs.
A brochure with Afi credentials and a brief description of the main services targeted for foreign investors can be downloaded here.
Latest research & commentary
- Spain Weekly
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The staggered reinstatement of VAT on food should have a limited impact on prices
12.13.24 - Notes on Spain
- Public finance
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The upward revision of out GDP forecast for 2024 also has a positive effect on our deficit forecasts, which now stand at 2.9% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025
08.01.24 - Economy
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The revision of the INE´s Annual National Accounts increases the growth of the Spanish economy between 2021 and 2023 and reduces the fall observed in 2020
09.18.24 - Miscellanea
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Although Omicron clouds the outlook for 1Q22, the cyclical risks are low
12.23.21 - Banking
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Earnings scenarios
07.23.21 - Political Risk
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The interim central government delays the approval of the PGE for 2024 and the implementation of milestones and targets of the NGEU funds
07.25.23
Flash Notes
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07.31.24
We estimate the Spanish economy will grow by 2.8% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025 -
10.27.23
Spain´s economic deceleration was confirmed in Q3, although it was less intense than expected -
09.25.23
The Spanish economy fared better than expected in 1H23 but downside risks remain prevalent -
07.28.23
The Spanish economy holds up in Q2 and rises 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. We maintain our forecast for 2023 at 2.2% -
01.27.23
Spanish economy grows 5.5% in 2022, but domestic demand plummets in the last quarter of the year
Afi forecasts
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |||
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0 | |||||
0 | |||||
Real GDP | 2,7 | 3,1 | 2,6 | ||
Final consumption | 2,7 | 3,2 | 2,5 | ||
Household | 1,7 | 2,7 | 2,4 | ||
Public Sector | 5,2 | 4,6 | 2,7 | ||
Investment | 2,1 | 1,7 | 3,5 | ||
Capital goods | 1,1 | 1,1 | 3,5 | ||
Construction | 3,0 | 2,5 | 3,2 | ||
Housing | 2,1 | 2,1 | 3,8 | ||
Other construction | 4,2 | 4,2 | 2,5 | ||
Domestic demand (*) | 1,7 | 2,8 | 2,7 | ||
Exports | 2,8 | 3,4 | 3,8 | ||
Imports | 0,3 | 2,8 | 4,2 | ||
External demand (*) | 1,0 | 0,3 | -0,1 | ||
CPI (annual average) | 3,5 | 2,8 | 2,0 | ||
GDP deflator | 6,4 | 3,1 | 2,6 | ||
Nominal GDP | 9,1 | 6,2 | 5,2 | ||
Employment | 3,1 | 2,0 | 1,6 | ||
Unemployment rate | 12,2 | 11,6 | 11,1 | ||
EDP Public balance (% GDP) | -3,7 | -2,9 | -2,5 | ||
EDP Public debt (% GDP) | 105,1 | 102,6 | 100,7 | ||
Current account (% GDP) | 2,5 | 3,3 | 2,3 |
Apr-14 | May-14 | Jun-14 | Jul-14 | Aug-14 | ||||||
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YoY change, quarterly average (%) | ||||||||||
(1) Indices (*) Seasonally adjusted figures |
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Productive capacity utilization, % | 77.0 | 74.1 | ||||||||
Industrial production | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | |||||
Economic sentiment index (1) | 102.5 | 101.4 | 101.8 | 104.0 | 103.4 | |||||
Industrial confidence (1) | -9.6 | -9.3 | -8.0 | -7.4 | -5.7 | |||||
Services confidence (1) | 11.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 12.5 | 7.0 | |||||
Electricity consumption | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||
Wholesales | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.8 | |||||
Deflated retail sales | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.2 | |||||
Vehicle registration | 10.2 | 12.1 | 14.3 | 15.7 | 14.9 | |||||
Consumer confidence index (1) | -8.3 | -7.8 | -6.7 | -3.9 | -7.7 | |||||
Social Security registration | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | |||||
Deflated exports of goods | 3.2 | 0.7 | -1.9 | -1.0 | 3.2 | |||||
Foreign tourist arrival | 7.1 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 5.0 | |||||
Credit to private sector | -7.6 | -7.2 | -6.9 | -6.3 | -5.9 |