About us
Afi is the leading consulting firm specialized in economics, banking and public finance in Spain. Originally set up in 1987 by a group of renowned academics that provided Spanish financial services institutions and non-financial corporations with insightful economic and financial analysis tailored to their needs.
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Latest research & commentary
- Spain Weekly
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Communications-related expenditure emerged as a staple, while the income-sensitivity of hospitality spending decreased in 2022
09.15.23 - Notes on Spain Public finance
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Extension of the measures implemented in response to the war in Ukraine has a limited impact on our deficit estimates
07.07.23
Economy
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The Spanish economy accelerates in the first quarter of the year, growing by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter. We revise to 1.8% annual growth forecast for 2023 due to the carry-over effect of a better second half of 2022
04.28.23 - No other information.
- Banking
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Earnings scenarios
07.23.21 - Political Risk
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The interim central government delays the approval of the PGE for 2024 and the implementation of milestones and targets of the NGEU funds
07.25.23
Flash Notes
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07.28.23
The Spanish economy holds up in Q2 and rises 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. We maintain our forecast for 2023 at 2.2%
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01.27.23
Spanish economy grows 5.5% in 2022, but domestic demand plummets in the last quarter of the year
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01.28.22
Spanish economy grows 5% in 2021, but consumption slackens in the last quarter of the year
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05.21.20
Treasury funding outlook: revised plan and financing options
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05.04.20
GDP falls 5.2% in 1Q20, anticipating the debacle we will see in 2Q
Afi forecasts
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | |||||
| 0 | |||||
| Real GDP | 5,5 | 2,2 | 1,6 | ||
| Final consumption | 3,0 | 1,1 | 2,1 | ||
| Household | 4,5 | 0,7 | 2,0 | ||
| Public Sector | -0,7 | 2,2 | 2,3 | ||
| Investment | 4,6 | 3,8 | 4,2 | ||
| Capital goods | 4,0 | 0,1 | 4,8 | ||
| Construction | 4,7 | 6,3 | 3,5 | ||
| Housing | 3,1 | 1,1 | 1,1 | ||
| Other construction | 6,6 | 12,0 | 12,0 | ||
| Domestic demand (*) | 3,1 | 1,7 | 2,5 | ||
| Exports | 14,4 | 2,5 | 0,3 | ||
| Imports | 7,9 | 1,2 | 2,4 | ||
| External demand (*) | 2,4 | 0,5 | -0,9 | ||
| CPI (annual average) | 8,4 | 3,5 | 3,0 | ||
| GDP deflator | 4,4 | 4,8 | 3,3 | ||
| Nominal GDP | 9,9 | 7,0 | 4,9 | ||
| Employment | 3,1 | 2,1 | 1,4 | ||
| Unemployment rate | 12,9 | 12,4 | 12,4 | ||
| EDP Public balance (% GDP) | -4,8 | -3,9 | -3,7 | ||
| EDP Public debt (% GDP) | 113,0 | 111,6 | 111,2 | ||
| Current account (% GDP) | 0,6 | 2,4 | 0,8 | ||
| Apr-14 | May-14 | Jun-14 | Jul-14 | Aug-14 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YoY change, quarterly average (%) | ||||||||||
|
(1) Indices (*) Seasonally adjusted figures |
||||||||||
| Productive capacity utilization, % | 77.0 | 74.1 | ||||||||
| Industrial production | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | |||||
| Economic sentiment index (1) | 102.5 | 101.4 | 101.8 | 104.0 | 103.4 | |||||
| Industrial confidence (1) | -9.6 | -9.3 | -8.0 | -7.4 | -5.7 | |||||
| Services confidence (1) | 11.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 12.5 | 7.0 | |||||
| Electricity consumption | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||
| Wholesales | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.8 | |||||
| Deflated retail sales | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.2 | |||||
| Vehicle registration | 10.2 | 12.1 | 14.3 | 15.7 | 14.9 | |||||
| Consumer confidence index (1) | -8.3 | -7.8 | -6.7 | -3.9 | -7.7 | |||||
| Social Security registration | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | |||||
| Deflated exports of goods | 3.2 | 0.7 | -1.9 | -1.0 | 3.2 | |||||
| Foreign tourist arrival | 7.1 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 5.0 | |||||
| Credit to private sector | -7.6 | -7.2 | -6.9 | -6.3 | -5.9 | |||||
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